Panel weather.
Every dot is a patient. Every day, a little care wears off. This is one year in a panel, run twice at the same time. Same people. Same starting point. Different conditions.
Press play. Then flip the switches and run it again.
As it is
As it could be
Care wears off.
Every patient drifts a little every day. Screenings come due, numbers creep, refills lapse. High-risk patients drift fastest.
Hours are the budget.
Each world can only deliver the share of recommended care its hours allow. Those budgets come from a real study: 26.7 hours a day alone, 9.3 with a team, for 2,500 adults.
Red tape decides the aim.
With red tape on, care goes to whoever books, and most outside ED visits are never heard about. With it off, a worklist sends care to whoever is slipping or overdue, and every ED visit gets a follow-up.
Slipping has a price.
The further a patient slips, the likelier an avoidable ED visit. A visit nobody hears about leaves them right where they were.
This is a toy, built to show a shape, not to predict anything. The patients, drift rates, and ED risk are invented. The only real numbers are the time budgets, from Porter et al., 2023. Nothing you do here is stored or sent.
What I take from it: Data doesn’t add hours. It aims them.